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In his seminal work Leviathan, Thomas Hobbes describes the inevitable consequence of society without government as "war of all against all" in which the life of man is "solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short".

Writing in the 17th century, Hobbes' philosophy was born of the violent chaos of the English Civil War. Were he alive, Hobbes would surely have drawn the same conclusions, played out in still starker relief, looking at Somalia today.

Since the ousting of Somalia's last plenipotent president, the socialist autocrat Siad Barre in 1991, Somalia has been the very definition of a failed state, existing as a recognisable entity only on paper and in the grand surroundings of international assemblies such as the United Nations. The reality has been a near constant state of clan-based internecine warfare, interjected more recently by a powerful and growing Islamist insurgency, supported by al-Qaeda. What government there has been has proved incapable of controlling even the capital Mogadishu, let alone the rest of the country. Indeed, for much of the last 18 years the government has not been based in the country at all.

The consequences of this war of all against all has been catastrophic for ordinary Somalis, the majority of whose lives are indeed solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short. With no proper education or work available, the average Somali can expect to earn just two dollars a day, witnessing firsthand if not partaking in the bloody warfare that characterises Somali life, before he dies or has his life ended for him just short of his 50th birthday. Almost four million of the country's 9.8 million people are now dependent upon aid for their survival.

Yet in spite of this, the international community has displayed what could at best be described as a measured indifference to the plight of the Somali people. Hamstringed both by an international legal system that seriously hinders meaningful intervention in civil conflicts, and by the fact that what interventions have taken place to date seem only to have made the situation worse, the international community has more or less left Somalia to its own devices.

All this may now begin to change.

The huge increase in pirate hijackings (up 200 per cent between 2007-2008) in the world's busiest shipping lane, the Gulf of Aden, has prompted the deployment of warships from some twenty nations from the United Kingdom, to Russia, to Singapore and even Iran.

As the world looks ever more frantically for new reserves, Somalia is also coming back into global focus for its oil. A 1991 study coordinated by the World Bank listed Somalia top of eight African prospective oil-producing nations. Recent events suggest international oil companies may be renewing their interest. Since obtaining a licence in August 2008, US companies Titan Resources Corporation and Capitan Energy have been prospecting along the Ethiopia-Somali border, whilst Chinese oil giant CNOOC has had exploration rights in Somalia itself since 1997.

Somalia Watch - AMISOM soldier
However, perhaps the development most likely to put Somalia back into global focus is the entrance of al-Qaeda into the country. Until fairly recently, conflict in Somalia has largely confined itself to clan-based warfare. In the last few years, this has begun to change. In 2006, Somalia enjoyed an unprecedented six month period of relative peace and stability following the ascendancy of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), a broad based coalition led by Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed. Unacceptable to both Ethiopia and the United States, the UIC was ousted following a US-backed invasion by Ethiopian forces in July 2006. The UIC's mantle has since been taken on by its armed wing, al-Shabaab, which, in an ironic twist, now pits itself against a government led by none other than Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed. What makes al-Shabaab of international concern is its increasingly international element, it having drawn fighters from as far afield as Chechnya, Pakistan and the United States.

The aim of Somalia Watch is to provide accurate and incisive analysis of the major issues and events affecting Somalia with the objective of better informing both policy makers and anyone with an interest in this, the world's most comprehensively failed state.



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